KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Democrats, 21+ pts 92%Leader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
33 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$20
Liquidity
$420
Low liquiditySpread
7.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 11 minutes ago
May 5, 26, 8:25 PM UTCNov 3, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Texas's 16th District by 21 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
- For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
- No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin.
- For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
Open markets
Politics
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- J.D. Vance50%
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KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
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- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
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POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Texas's 16th District margin of victory?
- Kalshi prices Democrats, 21+ pts at 92% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Texas's 16th District margin of victory resolve?
- Texas's 16th District margin of victory is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2027.
- How is Texas's 16th District margin of victory settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Texas's 16th District by 21 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.