KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Republicans, 14+ pts 79%+31.0ptLeader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
40 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$3.5K
Liquidity
$4.3K
Medium liquidityMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
May 5, 26, 8:24 PMNov 3, 27, 3:00 PM
Trends
0%
Rules
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Missouri's 4th District by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
- For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
- No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin.
- For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance-3.0pt50%
- Marco Rubio17%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $697.5M
- 24h Vol
- $3.3M
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-1.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.7pt13%
- Jon Ossoff11%
+49 more outcomes
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.2pt20%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+48 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-1.0pt53.4%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.9pt42.7%
- Renan Santos-0.6pt1.9%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-0.5pt36.8%
- Édouard Philippe29.5%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon14.7%
+38 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.8%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.8%
- Gavin Newsom12.9%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $210.3M
- 24h Vol
- $428.4K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Missouri's 4th District margin of victory?
- Kalshi prices Republicans, 14+ pts at 79% as of September 4, 2026.
- When does Missouri's 4th District margin of victory resolve?
- Missouri's 4th District margin of victory is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2027.
- How is Missouri's 4th District margin of victory settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Missouri's 4th District by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.