KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
LA-02 97%Leader of 6 outcomes
LA-02 97%Market quality
54 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$21
Open interest
$4.1K
Medium open interestSpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Sep 28, 26, 11:00 PM UTCNov 3, 27, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Louisiana 2nd Congressional District open primary, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Louisiana Secretary of State
- The market resolves to Yes if any candidate meets the legal threshold to avoid a second round. In two-round systems, this typically means receiving more than 50% of valid votes in the first round. In instant-runoff/ranked choice voting, this means a candidate received more than 50% of first-preference votes. Some elections use different thresholds (e.g., 40% with a 10-point lead, or 45%), in which case the applicable legal threshold applies. The determination is based solely on the first round/first count of votes, before any eliminations, transfers, or subsequent rounds. Blank votes, null votes, and invalid ballots are excluded unless electoral law specifically includes them. The market resolves once the relevant electoral body declares whether anyone won the first round.
Rules for each outcome
- LA-02
- If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Louisiana 2nd Congressional District open primary, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.
- LA-04
- If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Louisiana 4th Congressional District open primary, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.
- LA-01
- If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Louisiana 1st Congressional District open primary, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.
- LA-03
- If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Louisiana 3rd Congressional District open primary, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.
- LA-05
- If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Louisiana 5th Congressional District open primary, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.
- LA-06
- If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Louisiana 6th Congressional District open primary, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.