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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. Illinois pension debt in 2026?
Illinois pension debt in 2026?

Illinois pension debt in 2026?

YearlyPoliticsUS PoliticsBusiness & Corporate4mo
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Above $140 billion
Above $140 billion 93%
Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality

40 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0

Liquidity

$38.9

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

94.0% / 99.0%

Spread

5.3%

Moderate spread
Market data

Updated 5 minutes ago

May 13, 26, 5:00 PMNov 1, 26, 1:29 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Above $140 billion93%

Rules

If the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 is above $140 billion, as reported by the Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The Underlying is the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026, as reported in the Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability’s November Special Pension Briefing.
  • The five State-funded retirement systems are the Teachers’ Retirement System, State Universities Retirement System, State Employees’ Retirement System, Judges’ Retirement System, and General Assembly Retirement System.
  • Use the value reported for total unfunded liabilities, or an equivalent combined unfunded actuarial liability figure, for all five systems together.
  • The value should be based on the actuarial value of assets / smoothed value of assets, not the market value of assets, unless CGFA does not report an actuarial/smoothed-value figure for FY2026.
  • If the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 is above $145 billion, as reported by the Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Rules

If the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 is above $140 billion, as reported by the Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The Underlying is the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026, as reported in the Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability’s November Special Pension Briefing.
  • The five State-funded retirement systems are the Teachers’ Retirement System, State Universities Retirement System, State Employees’ Retirement System, Judges’ Retirement System, and General Assembly Retirement System.
  • Use the value reported for total unfunded liabilities, or an equivalent combined unfunded actuarial liability figure, for all five systems together.
  • The value should be based on the actuarial value of assets / smoothed value of assets, not the market value of assets, unless CGFA does not report an actuarial/smoothed-value figure for FY2026.
  • If the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 is above $145 billion, as reported by the Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, then the market resolves to Yes.