KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above $140 billion 93%Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
39 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$3.9K
Medium liquiditySpread
7.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 4 minutes ago
May 13, 26, 5:00 PM UTCNov 1, 26, 1:29 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
If the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 is the named outcome, as reported by the Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Illinois CGFA
- The Underlying is the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026, as reported in the Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability’s November Special Pension Briefing.
- The five State-funded retirement systems are the Teachers’ Retirement System, State Universities Retirement System, State Employees’ Retirement System, Judges’ Retirement System, and General Assembly Retirement System.
- Use the value reported for total unfunded liabilities, or an equivalent combined unfunded actuarial liability figure, for all five systems together.
- The value should be based on the actuarial value of assets / smoothed value of assets, not the market value of assets, unless CGFA does not report an actuarial/smoothed-value figure for FY2026.
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Illinois pension debt in 2026??
- Kalshi prices Above $140 billion at 93% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Illinois pension debt in 2026? resolve?
- Illinois pension debt in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on November 1, 2026.
- How is Illinois pension debt in 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 is the named outcome, as reported by the Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, then the market resolves to Yes.