What are the current odds for Will US Gov pay off X/Twitter's debt by 2027??

Manifold Markets prices No at 95.5% as of October 29, 2026.

When does Will US Gov pay off X/Twitter's debt by 2027? resolve?

Will US Gov pay off X/Twitter's debt by 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2027.

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market is to track a prediction made in an ArsTechnica comment:

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

No 95.5%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 8 hours ago

Stale

Jan 7, 25, 3:24 PM UTCJan 2, 27, 7:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

This market is to track a prediction made in an ArsTechnica comment:

"Within the next two years Musk will successfully persuade Trump to pay off Twitter/X's debts using public funds.
He'll give Trump a tub-thumping speech about how paying off the debt using public funds is 'by the people for the people' or some nonsense like that, call Trump a bastion of Free Speech for doing it, and bingo, Musk's Twitter debt is gone."
Resolves YES if a significant portion of the debt incurred to take Twitter private is paid for by US government.
Resolution will try to stick to the comment's original claim, rather than being interpreted broadly.
So if, for example, X passes through bankruptcy court and is given a loan by US gov (transferring initial debts from private lenders to gov, but not waiving them), then this would not count.