KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityMike Ezell 97%
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$319.9
Low liquidityBid / Ask
0.2% / 3.1%
Spread
2.9 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 20 minutes ago
Jan 7, 26, 1:08 AMNov 3, 27, 3:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Jeffrey Hulum III3%
Compare venues· Mike Ezell
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall60% match · verified | High | 93% | — | $2.8K | $29.4K | 20 minutes ago | Open → |
| KalshiThis page | Low | 96% | — | $0 | $319.9 | 20 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
MS-04 House Election Winner
1.4 pts3mo
-1.4pt95.9%
-0.1pt4.1%
0%
+5 more outcomes
75 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$34.7K
24h Vol$2.8K
POLYMARKETRules
If the House member sworn in for MS-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
- See full rules for details.
- If the House member sworn in for MS-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$3Jul 62d of dataJul 7
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If the House member sworn in for MS-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
- See full rules for details.
- If the House member sworn in for MS-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.