PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityRepublican Party 95.9%-1.4ptLeader of 8 outcomes
Market quality
75 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$2.8K
Liquidity
$29.4K
High liquidityBid / Ask
92.2% / 92.9%
Spread
0.7 pt
Tight spread7d Change
-1.4 pts
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Jan 28, 26, 9:41 PMNov 3, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Republican Party93%
Compare venues· Republican Party
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | High | 93% | — | $2.8K | $29.4K | 15 minutes ago | |
 Kalshi60% match · verified | Low | 96% | — | $0 | $319.9 | 15 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Kalshi
MS-04 House winner?
1y
97%
3%
49 • Low qualityModerate spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$8.2K
24h Vol$0
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S.
- House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
- The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
- A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
- A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
- This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$2.8kJul 617d of dataJul 27
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This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S.
- House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
- The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
- A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
- A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
- This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.