KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Above 4 · —
Loading selected book…
Book received (not venue quote time): —
Stored price
Above 5 Stored bid–ask60%–61%Collected: Last trade: 60% · Trade time unknownPrices are percentages of payout, before fees; these stored observations are not executable quotes.Market line of 7 lines
Above 5 Stored bid–ask60%–61%Collected: Last trade: 60% · Trade time unknownPrices are percentages of payout, before fees; these stored observations are not executable quotes.Market quality
67 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$5.6K
Open interest
$13.3K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
— / —
Above 4Spread
—
Market data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Oct 9, 26, 5:00 PM UTCOct 20, 26, 1:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Above 4
Loading selected book…
Book received (not venue quote time): —
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11)
KalshiTraffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11)
KalshiTraffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/12 - 10/18)
KalshiFree flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?
PolymarketOn October 25th 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be?
Manifold MarketsRules
If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 5 from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:IMF PortWatch
- The Expiration Value is determined by identifying the highest single-day count from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
Rules for each outcome
- Above 4
- If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 4 from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5
- If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 5 from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 6
- If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 6 from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 8
- If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 8 from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 10
- If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 10 from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 12
- If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 12 from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 14
- If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 14 from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.