KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: At least 40% (98%)
Resolved: Oct 9, 2026, 5:09 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 9, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
At least 45%99%
At least 40%64%
At least 45%Lost
At least 40%Won
At least 30%Lost
At least 35%Lost
At least 55%Lost
At least 50%Lost
At least 20%Lost
At least 65%Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If the Conservatives get ≥100 seats in the next general election, will the PM at the end of 2027 be Labour?
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Manifold MarketsRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Labour Party in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election is 20% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:London Borough of Camden
- The percentage is (votes received by the party ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded.
- Except as provided in the Fully-Conducted Elections provision, use certified/official results; qualifying unofficial results may be used only under that provision.
- Write-in votes in the result are included.
- Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from numerator and denominator.
- If multiple rounds occur, use the specified round or first round if none is specified.