KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Yes · —
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Stored price
Yes 52.5%
Yes 52.5%Market quality
47 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$1.3K
Low open interestBid / Ask
— / —
YesSpread
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Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Oct 8, 26, 2:00 AM UTCDec 12, 26, 3:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Yes
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
California Governor: which counties will Steve Hilton win?
KalshiCalifornia Governor election: Steve Hilton vote percent
KalshiWill Abdul El-Sayed outperform the polls?
KalshiWill Roy Cooper outperform the polls?
KalshiSteve Hilton OR Spencer Pratt win?
Manifold MarketsWill Steve Hilton win the California general election for Governor in 2026?
ForecastExRules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
- The market compares the official certified election result to the specified poll or polling average. "Outperform" means the actual result exceeds the poll figure; "underperform" means it falls short. Only certified results count - not preliminary tallies or projections. If using a poll range, the midpoint is used for comparison. Margins of error are not considered; any difference counts as over/underperformance. For the purposes of this market, the Real Clear Polling average for the 2026 California governor election at 10 AM ET on November 3, 2026 will be used to determine relative performance. For a winning candidate, the margin of victory is calculated as the difference between the candidate's vote share and their closest competitor's share. For a losing candidate, the margin of victory is calculated as the difference between the candidate’s vote share and the vote share of the candidate immediately ahead of them. Positive margins indicate the candidate won, negative margins indicate they lost, and zero indicates a tie. The polling margin is calculated the same way from the RCP Average figures, so a deficit in the average is a negative margin. Vote shares are percentages of all votes cast for the office. Write-in votes are aggregated as a single candidate if not individually reported. Only certified results are used for resolution. Recounts that change the certified margin before expiration use the most recent certified results.
Rules for each outcome
- Yes
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.
- No
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.
