KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningNo live quotes
Data as of Sep 8, 2026, 11:10 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Before Jan 1, 2027 34%
Market quality
34 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$2K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
30.0% / 38.0%
Spread
8.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Sep 5, 26, 2:30 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?
PolymarketWill Elon Musk's Tesla release a super long-term battery or breakthrough energy technology that lasts months or years wi
Manifold MarketsDrop in India’s S&P long-term credit rating in 2026?
FutuurDrop in Mexico’s S&P long-term credit rating in 2026?
FutuurWill long-term capital gains tax rate (federal) be increased in the US by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Milky Way still exist in 2030? [long-term interest rate market]
Manifold MarketsRules
If all 27 EU member states agree to or announce the final agreed terms of the overall political agreement on the 2028-2034 EU long-term budget (MFF), as officially declared by the European Council to have been reached by all 27 EU member states the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:European Council
- The European Council must officially declare that all 27 EU member states have reached political agreement on the overall 2028-2034 MFF terms.
- A commitment or timetable to reach agreement later, a negotiating box, a partial or sectoral mandate, or a package leaving MFF-level terms unresolved does not qualify.
- European Parliament consent, formal legislative adoption, and entry into force are not required.
- An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following:
- Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will the EU reach a long-term budget deal??
- Kalshi prices Before Jan 1, 2027 at 34% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When will the EU reach a long-term budget deal? resolve?
- When will the EU reach a long-term budget deal? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is When will the EU reach a long-term budget deal? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If all 27 EU member states agree to or announce the final agreed terms of the overall political agreement on the 2028-2034 EU long-term budget (MFF), as officially declared by the European Council to have been reached by all 27 EU member states the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.