KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Before Sep 1, 2027 · —
Loading selected book…
—
Stored price
Before Sep 1, 2027 75.5%Leader of 4 outcomes
Before Sep 1, 2027 75.5%Market quality
33 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Open interest
$1.8K
Low open interestBid / Ask
— / —
Before Sep 1, 2027Spread
—
Market data
Updated 26 minutes ago
Sep 5, 26, 2:30 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before Sep 1, 2027
Loading selected book…
—
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Drop in Mexico’s S&P long-term credit rating in 2026?
FutuurWill Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?
PolymarketWill Elon Musk's Tesla release a super long-term battery or breakthrough energy technology that lasts months or years wi
Manifold MarketsWill I be in a serious, potentially-long-term relationship by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsDrop in India’s S&P long-term credit rating in 2026?
FutuurWill long-term capital gains tax rate (federal) be increased in the US by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
If all 27 EU member states agree to or announce the final agreed terms of the overall political agreement on the 2028-2034 EU long-term budget (MFF), as officially declared by the European Council to have been reached by all 27 EU member states before Sep 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:European Council
- The European Council must officially declare that all 27 EU member states have reached political agreement on the overall 2028-2034 MFF terms. A commitment or timetable to reach agreement later, a negotiating box, a partial or sectoral mandate, or a package leaving MFF-level terms unresolved does not qualify. European Parliament consent, formal legislative adoption, and entry into force are not required. An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following: Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where all 27 EU member states are signatories also qualify. The following do NOT qualify: Preliminary discussions Conditional agreements contingent on circumstances Opposition party statements Leaked documents Think-tank recommendations General aspirations without specific commitment Draft legislation without approval Regional actions (unless specified) Retraction of previously announced commitments
Rules for each outcome
- Before Sep 1, 2027
- If all 27 EU member states agree to or announce the final agreed terms of the overall political agreement on the 2028-2034 EU long-term budget (MFF), as officially declared by the European Council to have been reached by all 27 EU member states before Sep 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jul 1, 2027
- If all 27 EU member states agree to or announce the final agreed terms of the overall political agreement on the 2028-2034 EU long-term budget (MFF), as officially declared by the European Council to have been reached by all 27 EU member states before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Apr 1, 2027
- If all 27 EU member states agree to or announce the final agreed terms of the overall political agreement on the 2028-2034 EU long-term budget (MFF), as officially declared by the European Council to have been reached by all 27 EU member states before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If all 27 EU member states agree to or announce the final agreed terms of the overall political agreement on the 2028-2034 EU long-term budget (MFF), as officially declared by the European Council to have been reached by all 27 EU member states before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.