What are the current odds for Drop in Mexico’s S&P long-term credit rating in 2026??

Futuur prices No at 77% as of October 31, 2026.

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Drop in Mexico’s S&P long-term credit rating in 2026?

Latin AmericaOne-Off2mo

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Current implied probability

No 77%

Market quality

33 / 100

Low quality

24h Volume

—

Liquidity

$1.3K

Low liquidity

Traders

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Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

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Outcome24hChance

Rules

This event predicts whether S&P Global Ratings will downgrade Mexico’s long-term sovereign credit rating at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive).

The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official rating action announcements published by S&P. If S&P formally lowers Mexico’s long-term sovereign rating level during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
Outlook changes or credit watch placements without a downgrade of the rating level will not count.
If official rating announcements are ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major financial news organizations.

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