KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityFrance 46%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$18.7K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
1.2% / 3.4%
Spread
2.2 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Feb 18, 25, 3:00 PMJan 1, 30, 3:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Italy4%
Volume trend
$12Jul 104d of dataJul 21
Related Markets
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
$156.3KUnited Russia (ER): 57%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will Ireland give up its neutrality before 2027?
$500Yes: 11.9%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSFirst overseas visit of the next UK PM?
$245.5USA 🇺🇸: 5.7%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Next High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2026?
$230.9No HR in 2026: 61%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?
$22.5Yes: 5%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETWill Northern Cyprus be recognized by a country other than Turkey before October 2026?
$10Yes: 12.8%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSActive in these topics
Related News
Polymarket: US invasion of Iran odds jump to 23.5% after Jordan base claimBlockchain.News
Polymarket prices China–Japan clash at 7.5% after ICC dispute spotlights TokyoBlockchain.News
Polymarket lifts US-Iran invasion odds to 18.5% after blockade, strikesBlockchain.NewsPolymarket: Iran regime-fall odds dip to 9.5% despite escalation reportBlockchain.News
Polymarket: Hormuz traffic 'Yes' sinks to 1.15% after Trump strike threatBlockchain.News
US freezes $131M in Iran-linked crypto as Middle East tensions riseCointelegraphRules
If Italy votes to leave the EU before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Germany votes to leave the EU before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If France votes to leave the EU before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Spain votes to leave the EU before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Poland votes to leave the EU before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Hungary votes to leave the EU before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.