KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
France · —
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Stored price
France 4.9%Leader of 6 outcomes
France 4.9%Market quality
35 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$20.8K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
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FranceSpread
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Market data
Updated 58 minutes ago
LaggingFeb 18, 25, 3:00 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 3:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · France
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Faroe Islands vote to leave Denmark in a referendum before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen the next referendum is held on Scotland's Union with the United Kingdom, will Scotland vote to leave?
Manifold MarketsWhich of these countries will leave the EU by 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?
MetaculusWill any country leave the EU before 2028?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketRules
If France votes to leave the EU before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABCPoliticoThe New York TimesThe InformationAxiosAPBloombergReutersCNNFox NewsSemaforThe Wall Street JournalThe Washington PostCBSNBCMSNBC
Rules for each outcome
- France
- If France votes to leave the EU before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Hungary
- If Hungary votes to leave the EU before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Germany
- If Germany votes to leave the EU before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Spain
- If Spain votes to leave the EU before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Poland
- If Poland votes to leave the EU before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Italy
- If Italy votes to leave the EU before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.