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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. Which countries will vote to leave the EU before 2030?
Which countries will vote to leave the EU before 2030?

Which countries will vote to leave the EU before 2030?

One-OffPoliticsGeopoliticsEurope3y
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Italy
Italy 5%
Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality

24 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0

Liquidity

$91.6

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

2.5% / 4.5%

Spread

80.0%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 3 minutes ago

Feb 18, 25, 3:00 PMJan 1, 30, 3:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Italy5%

Rules

If Italy votes to leave the EU before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • If Germany votes to leave the EU before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If France votes to leave the EU before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If Spain votes to leave the EU before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If Poland votes to leave the EU before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If Hungary votes to leave the EU before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Metaculus

Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?

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EU has a new member before 2030?

EU has a new member before 2030?

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Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?

Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?

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Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$62,755.53+2.09%EthereumETH$1,654.77+1.39%SolanaSOL$65.10+1.39%DogecoinDOGE$0.0847+1.30%XRPXRP$1.11+0.22%BNBBNB$596.04+1.69%

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Rules

If Italy votes to leave the EU before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • If Germany votes to leave the EU before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If France votes to leave the EU before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If Spain votes to leave the EU before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If Poland votes to leave the EU before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If Hungary votes to leave the EU before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.