KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before 2034 32%Leader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
40 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$682
Low liquiditySpread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Apr 14, 26, 9:00 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
In the 2028 presidential election will at least one state assign its electoral votes based on the national popular vote?
Manifold Markets[Metaculus] Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?
Manifold MarketsIf Germany's 2025 election votes are (fully or partially) recounted, will BSW reach 5% of votes?
Manifold MarketsPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketBrazil Presidential Election
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRules
If states that have enacted the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact possess at least 270 electoral votes before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:National Popular Vote Inc
- For purposes of this Contract, a state or jurisdiction has "enacted" NPVIC legislation when such legislation has been signed into law by the governor, has become law without the governor's signature after the constitutional waiting period, or has been enacted by veto override; or has otherwise become law.
- The effective date of the law is not relevant; only that it has been enacted.
- Electoral votes are counted based on the apportionment in effect at the time of when the relevant law is enacted.
- States that have withdrawn from the compact through repeal legislation are not counted toward the total.
- If a state's membership in the compact is invalidated by a final court ruling before Jan 1, 2028, that state's electoral votes are not counted.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the NPVIC reach 270 electoral votes??
- Kalshi prices Before 2034 at 32% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the NPVIC reach 270 electoral votes? resolve?
- Will the NPVIC reach 270 electoral votes? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.
- How is Will the NPVIC reach 270 electoral votes? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If states that have enacted the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact possess at least 270 electoral votes before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.