KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Reform UK, ≥15% (98%)
Resolved: Aug 14, 2026, 2:28 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Aug 14, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Reform UK, ≥20% 99%+4.0ptLeader of 16 outcomes
Market quality
38 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$56.3K
Liquidity
$116.5K
High liquidityMarket data
Updated 18 days ago
StaleJul 7, 26, 11:00 PMJul 8, 27, 2:00 PM
Probability Timeline
Reform UK, ≥50%52%
Reform UK, ≥45%5%
Reform UK, ≥60%27%
Reform UK, ≥65%15%
Reform UK, ≥70%6%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
98%
6%
5%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
Rules
If the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election falls within 5% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Tendring District Council
- The margin of victory is the vote share received by Reform UK minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Reform UK if Reform UK wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Reform UK loses.
- If Reform UK wins, the margin will be positive; if Reform UK loses, the margin will be negative; if Reform UK ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied.
- For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
- If Reform UK runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.
