Current implied probability
Reform UK 92%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
100 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$145.2K
Liquidity
$122.8K
High liquidityBid / Ask
90.0% / 92.0%
Spread
2.2%
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 1 minute ago
Jul 7, 26, 2:45 PMSep 1, 27, 2:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Reform UK92%
Compare venues· Reform UK
Ordered by 24h volume
Also available on Polymarket
Clacton by-election Winner
11mo
91%
50%
50%
+49 more outcomes
100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$352.9K
24h Vol$352.9K
POLYMARKET
Also available on Smarkets
Clacton By-Election - Winner
0%
14.7%
0%
+4 more outcomes
49 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidity
Total Vol$20K
24h Vol$20K
SMARKETSRules
If Reform UK wins the 2026 Clacton by-election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.
- If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified
- For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).
- If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met
- For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$145.2kJul 72d of dataJul 8
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If Reform UK wins the 2026 Clacton by-election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.
- If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified
- For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).
- If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met
- For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.