How many House seats will Democrats win in California?
One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms1y
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
48 · —
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Stored price
48 77%Leader of 8 outcomes
48 77%Market quality
51 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$119.3
Open interest
$22.2K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
— / —
48Spread
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Market data
Updated 22 minutes ago
Feb 5, 26, 12:00 AM UTCNov 3, 27, 2:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · 48
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsHow many House seats will the Democrats win in North Carolina?
PolymarketRules
If the Democratic party has won exactly 48 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in California, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:California Secretary of State
- A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either the time for legal challenges has expired, challenges have been resolved, or the member has taken their seat. Party affiliation is determined by the party under whose banner the candidate was elected, regardless of subsequent changes. The count is determined when the new legislature takes their seats, even if some seats remain vacant or challenged. If the election is postponed beyond one year from the original date or cancelled entirely, the market resolves to the last fair market price. Only seats actually contested and filled are counted in partial elections. By-elections after the main election are included only if seated simultaneously with the rest of the legislature.
Rules for each outcome
- 48
- If the Democratic party has won exactly 48 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in California, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 47
- If the Democratic party has won exactly 47 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in California, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 49
- If the Democratic party has won exactly 49 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in California, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 45
- If the Democratic party has won exactly 45 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in California, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Below 44
- If the Democratic party has won below 44 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in California, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 44
- If the Democratic party has won exactly 44 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in California, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 46
- If the Democratic party has won exactly 46 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in California, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 50 and above
- If the Democratic party has won at least 50 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in California, then the market resolves to Yes.