KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeCurrent implied probabilityMichelle Bolsonaro 7%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
36 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$1.5K
Liquidity
$1.2K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
7.0% / 8.0%
Spread
14.3%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Jul 7, 26, 11:00 PMOct 3, 28, 2:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Michelle Bolsonaro7%
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If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is announced to qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If a candidate wins the first round outright with a majority (or whatever threshold Brazil requires to avoid a runoff), and no runoff occurs, the market for that winning candidate will resolve Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
- A candidate is "announced to qualify" when the official election authority of Brazil certifies or announces qualification, OR when the Associated Press or at least two other Source Agencies report that Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has qualified for the runoff, whichever occurs first.
- Official certification is not required for resolution.
- This is determined at the time qualification is announced; subsequent withdrawals, disqualifications, or changes in eligibility do not affect whether the candidate qualified.
- If a candidate is announced to not qualify, the market will immediately resolve to No.