KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 97%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
51 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.3
Liquidity
$9.8K
Medium liquiditySpread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Jul 7, 26, 11:00 PM UTCOct 3, 28, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
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KalshiRules
If the named outcome is announced to qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)
- If a candidate wins the first round outright, and no runoff occurs, the market for that winning candidate will resolve Yes and all other markets will resolve to No. This is determined at the time qualification is announced; subsequent withdrawals, disqualifications, or changes in eligibility do not affect whether the candidate qualified.
- If a candidate is announced to not qualify, the market will immediately resolve to No.
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
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+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
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- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will advance in the Brazilian presidential election??
- Kalshi prices Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 97% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Who will advance in the Brazilian presidential election? resolve?
- Who will advance in the Brazilian presidential election? is scheduled to resolve on October 3, 2028.
- How is Who will advance in the Brazilian presidential election? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the named outcome is announced to qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.