KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 150 81%+2.0ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
72 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$25.1K
Liquidity
$28.5K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Sep 18, 26, 4:30 PM UTCSep 29, 26, 1:00 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of September?
PolymarketTraffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/21 - 9/27)
KalshiTraffic through the Suez Canal? (9/21 - 9/27)
KalshiPeak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/21 - 9/27)
KalshiTraffic through the Panama Canal? (9/21 - 9/27)
KalshiBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
PolymarketRules
If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is the named outcome from Sep 21, 2026 to Sep 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:IMF PortWatch
- The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Sep 21, 2026 to Sep 27, 2026.
- The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+1.4pt65%
- October 31-6.0pt33%
- September 30-2.0pt8%
+17 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $31M
- 24h Vol
- $761.9K
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No+1.0pt86%
- Yes-1.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $68.4M
- 24h Vol
- $594.7K
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No-5.0pt75.3%
- Yes+5.0pt24.8%
- Total Vol
- $12.5M
- 24h Vol
- $473.4K
POLYMARKETNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms+0.5pt14%
- Save the Children-0.6pt10%
- Yulia Navalnaya8%
+28 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- September 25+0.1pt97%
- September 3090%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.2M
- 24h Vol
- $291.6K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
+24 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $31.3M
- 24h Vol
- $165.3K
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
- Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Trump renames AI by September 30?
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/21 - 9/27)?
- Kalshi prices Above 150 at 81% as of September 23, 2026.
- When does Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/21 - 9/27) resolve?
- Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/21 - 9/27) is scheduled to resolve on September 29, 2026.
- How is Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/21 - 9/27) settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is the named outcome from Sep 21, 2026 to Sep 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.