GeminiKYC requiredVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedData quality warningNo live quotes
Data as of Sep 13, 2026, 6:11 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Raúl Castro 100%Leader of 28 outcomes
Market quality
22 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownTraders
0
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Apr 30, 26, 6:38 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will any Supreme Court Justice be charged with a federal crime?
KalshiWill at least one of Merrick Garland or Jack Smith be charged with a federal crime by 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (aka AOC) be charged with a federal crime by February 1, 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Destiny be charged by the federal or Florida government by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill AI be charged with a crime before 2027?
PolymarketWill Elon Musk be charged with a crime in Spain or France?
KalshiRules
Which listed people will be formally charged with a federal crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- If the named outcome has been formally charged with a federal crime after issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Formal charges require the filing of a criminal complaint, information, or indictment with an appropriate court.
- Arrests without charges, being named as a target of investigation, civil lawsuits, and administrative actions do not constitute charges.
- If charges are filed and then dismissed before the deadline, the market still resolves to Yes.
- Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://images.ctfassets.net/jg6lo9a2ukvr/6JbZL04LYK78sGvg3AbPWn/974e0445a1cef725626f24205bb61c83/Individual_Charged_-_Terms_and_Conditions.docx.pdf).
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? · John Brennan 35%
Open markets
FedPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt78.4%
- No change20.6%
- 50+ bps increase-0.2pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $139.9M
- 24h Vol
- $5.5M
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+1.0pt76.9%
- Fed maintains rate-1.0pt20.2%
- Cut 25bps1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $61.5M
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps-3.0pt67.9%
- Fed maintains rate+4.0pt25.7%
- Hike >25bps-2.0pt2.3%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts-0.1pt90.2%
- Exactly 1 cut+1.6pt7.8%
- Exactly 2 cuts-0.5pt1%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting82%
- September Meeting-1.0pt79%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETFed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes-1.5pt86.1%
- No+1.5pt13.9%
- Total Vol
- $9.1M
- 24h Vol
- $63.3K
- Fed Decision in October?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Fed Rate Decision (Oct 2026)
- How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Fed decision in September?
- Will the Fed raise the rate 25bps in September 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026??
- Gemini prices Raúl Castro at 100% as of September 13, 2026.
- When does Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? resolve?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? settled?
- Gemini settles this market as follows: Which listed people will be formally charged with a federal crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- Where else is Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi.