GeminiLimited verified dataData quality warningNo live quotes
Data as of Jul 27, 2026, 2:40 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probabilityRaúl Castro 99%Leader of 32 outcomes
Market quality
22 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
-
Market data
Updated 21 minutes ago
Apr 30, 26, 6:38 PMJan 1, 27, 12:00 AM
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Raúl Castro99%
Compare venues· Raúl Castro
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall94% match · auto | Medium | 99% | 0pt | $3K | $408.7K | 21 minutes ago | Open → |
| GeminiThis page | Low | 99% | 0pt | $0 | $0 | 21 minutes ago |
Also available on Kalshi
Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
2.0 pts5mo
99%
+2.0pt44%
35%
+38 more outcomes
71 • Medium qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$1.1M
24h Vol$3K
KALSHIRules
Which listed people will be formally charged with a federal crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- If Raúl Castro has been formally charged with a federal crime after issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Formal charges require the filing of a criminal complaint, information, or indictment with an appropriate court.
- Arrests without charges, being named as a target of investigation, civil lawsuits, and administrative actions do not constitute charges.
- If charges are filed and then dismissed before the deadline, the market still resolves to Yes.
- Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://images.ctfassets.net/jg6lo9a2ukvr/6JbZL04LYK78sGvg3AbPWn/974e0445a1cef725626f24205bb61c83/Individual_Charged_-_Terms_and_Conditions.docx.pdf).
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Related Markets
Jerome Powell federally charged by which date?
$113December 31,: 3%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?
$0Yes: 2%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
What will Kevin Warsh say during July Press Conference?
$8.6KBalance Sheet: 85%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will Trump try to fire Kevin Warsh?
$5.4KBefore Jul 1, 2027: 9%KALSHI
KALSHI
PROP BET - What will happen in Trump's attempt to fire Fed Reserve Gov Lisa Cook? [Add Answers]
$250Trump announces a nominee for Cook's seat before 2026: 0%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Will Trump end the Federal Reserve?
$96.7Yes: 5%KALSHI
KALSHIActive in these topics
Related News
Polymarket: Vance leads 2028 at 19.85% as pricing trend softensBlockchain.News
White House pushes Senate Democrats to take 'historic' crypto Clarity Act ethics dealCoindesk
Senate nears bipartisan CLARITY Act deal after ethics breakthroughCrypto News
White House agrees to ethics provisions in market structure billCointelegraph
California duo accused of laundering crypto from fentanyl and meth salesCrypto News
LayerZero Executor Wallets Undergo Security Breach, $2.4 Million DrainedBlockchain ReporterRules
Which listed people will be formally charged with a federal crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- If Raúl Castro has been formally charged with a federal crime after issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Formal charges require the filing of a criminal complaint, information, or indictment with an appropriate court.
- Arrests without charges, being named as a target of investigation, civil lawsuits, and administrative actions do not constitute charges.
- If charges are filed and then dismissed before the deadline, the market still resolves to Yes.
- Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://images.ctfassets.net/jg6lo9a2ukvr/6JbZL04LYK78sGvg3AbPWn/974e0445a1cef725626f24205bb61c83/Individual_Charged_-_Terms_and_Conditions.docx.pdf).