Data quality warningNot meaningfully priced
Data as of Sep 9, 2026, 3:48 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
James Gallagher 4.5%
Market quality
24 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownBid / Ask
1.0% / 8.0%
Spread
7.0 pt
Wide spreadTraders
0
Market data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Aug 24, 26, 12:48 PM UTCNov 10, 26, 1:00 AM UTC
Trends
4.5%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which California House Districts will Democrats win in the 2026 Midterms?
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KalshiRules
Who will win the 2026 U.S. House election in California-01?
- If the named outcome wins the 2026 U.S. House election in CA-01, then this market resolves to Yes.
- Outcome should be verified from the applicable state election authority and widely reported national sources.
- View the [full rules](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2F8634b5141fe14d6783a347884150d6bd?alt=media&token=f103a20d-e51f-47f5-ad36-03aaaafec1cc&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).
- If Mike McGuire wins the 2026 U.S. House election in CA-01, then this market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $804.1K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.4M
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- Next French Presidential Election
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for California-01 House Winner?
- Gemini prices James Gallagher at 5% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does California-01 House Winner resolve?
- California-01 House Winner is scheduled to resolve on November 10, 2026.
- How is California-01 House Winner settled?
- Gemini settles this market as follows: Who will win the 2026 U.S. House election in California-01?