Will Donald Trump cease to exercise presidential powers for 48 hours during 2026?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2mo
FutuurCheck availabilityVerified resolution dataCurrent implied probability
No 90%
No 90%Market quality
32 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$811.9
Low liquidityTraders
2
Comments
0
Market data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will JD Vance assume presidential powers in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Donald Trump cease to be President of the United States?
Manifold MarketsPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Polymarket2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
KalshiBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
PolymarketTexas Senate winner?
KalshiRules
This market predicts whether Donald Trump will cease to exercise the powers of the U.S. presidency for a continuous period of at least 48 hours during calendar year 2026.
- If, at any point in this period, Donald Trump does not exercise the powers of the U.S. presidency for a continuous period of 48 hours or more — whether due to a 25th Amendment transfer, death, resignation, removal from office, or any documented incapacity preventing the exercise of presidential authority — this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- The Primary Designated Source is official White House communications (whitehouse.gov), the Federal Register, and statements from the Office of the Vice President or the Acting President during the relevant period.
- A consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm a continuous 48-hour-plus period of actual non-exercise of powers.
- In ambiguous edge cases, resolution will follow the spirit of the question.