SmarketsCheck availabilityKYC requiredUnverified resolution dataCurrent implied probabilityAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez 13.51%Leader of 22 outcomes
Market quality
32 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$1
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
-
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez14%
Compare venues· Gavin Newsom
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall64% match · auto | Medium | 20% | 0pt | $4M | $103.8M | 14 minutes ago | Open → |
 Polymarket64% match · auto | Medium | 19% | -1pt | $1.1M | $70.8M | 19 minutes ago | Open → |
| SmarketsThis page | Low | 21% | +1pt | $1 | $0 | 12 minutes ago | |
 Limitless64% match · linked | Low | 23% | +3pt | $0 | $0 | 12 minutes ago | Open → |
 Myriad64% match · linked | Low | 48% | +28pt | $0 | $0 | 12 minutes ago | Open → |
 Manifold Markets64% match · linked | — | 20% | 0pt | — | — | 30 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets64% match · linked | — | 22% | +2pt | — | — | 2 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
2y
-0.4%19%
-0.9%14%
-2.1%10%
+125 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$1.2B
24h Vol$1.1M
POLYMARKETAlso available on Kalshi
2028 Democratic presidential nominee
2y
0%
-0.1%0%
-1.0%0%
+43 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$150.9M
24h Vol$4M
KALSHIAlso available on Manifold Markets
Democratic Nominee for 2028 Presidential Election
1y
7.1%
20%
6%
+14 more outcomes
Community forecast21 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
2y
-0.1%21.7%
+0.6%11.7%
-0.1%6.5%
+5 more outcomes
Community forecast13 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Limitless
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
2y
23%
13.9%
5.5%
+3 more outcomes
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$12.2K
24h Vol$0
LIMITLESSAlso available on Myriad
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
4.7%73y
+0.1%48.3%
-0.1%4.5%
-0.1%22.1%
+29 more outcomes
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$0
24h Vol$0
MYRIADRules
Who will be the Democratic candidate for the 2028 US presidential election?
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$1Jul 84d of dataJul 11
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Who will be the Democratic candidate for the 2028 US presidential election?