What will be the margin in the 2026 Minnesota Republican gubernatorial primary?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection
PredictItClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredUnverified resolution dataRetail prediction exchange
This market resolved: Lisa Demuth ≥10% (99%)
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Current implied probability
Lisa Demuth ≥10% 99%Leader of 7 outcomes
Methodology
Retail prediction exchange
Question type
-
24h Volume
$80
Market data
Updated 2 days ago
StaleProbability Timeline
Mike Lindell ≥10%1%
Mike Lindell 5 - 10%0%
Mike Lindell <5%0%
Lisa Demuth <5%1%
Lisa Demuth 5 - 10%4%
Lisa Demuth ≥10%99%
Both Lose0%
99%
4%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
Rules
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the difference between the percentages of the popular vote cast in favor of the candidate who wins the most votes and the candidate who wins the second most votes in the primary for the Republican nominating contest for governor of Minnesota.
- Should neither of the listed candidates win, all contracts labeled "the named outcome" will resolve to Yes.
The percentage of the popular vote won by each candidate shall be determined by dividing the number of votes the candidate wins by the total number of valid votes for all ballot-listed and write-in candidates officially reported. - The difference between candidates will be calculated from unrounded percentages.
- Should the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. - Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
- If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
