Will US attack Iran in 2023?
Geopolitics
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No
Resolved: Jan 1, 2024, 7:02 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current implied probability
No 100%
Market quality
15 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 122 days ago
StaleDec 4, 23, 5:49 PMDec 31, 23, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
Yes0%
No100%
100%
0%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States of America initiates a military attack on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory between December 3 and December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For the purposes of this market, a "military attack" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is subject to a US missile strike, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the U.S. federal government or a consensus of credible reporting.
- This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions.
- Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
- In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+7.2pt78%
- October 31+18.5pt65%
- September 30+13.0pt42%
+17 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $20.8M
- 24h Vol
- $1.2M
POLYMARKETUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- August 22100%
- August 25+0.8pt100%
- August 31+4.0pt96%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No-6.0pt60.4%
- Yes+6.0pt39.6%
- Total Vol
- $9.5M
- 24h Vol
- $333.2K
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No+1.0pt84.2%
- Yes-1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $59.9M
- 24h Vol
- $269.1K
POLYMARKETNext round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- March 31, 2027+0.5pt68%
- December+2.0pt53%
- September 30,+3.5pt25%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)72%
- New People (NL)-0.2pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.3pt5%
+5 more outcomes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will US attack Iran in 2023??
- Polymarket prices No at 100% as of April 25, 2026.
- When does Will US attack Iran in 2023? resolve?
- Will US attack Iran in 2023? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2023.
- How is Will US attack Iran in 2023? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States of America initiates a military attack on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory between December 3 and December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET.