PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes
Resolved: Jun 18, 2026, 12:32 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Yes
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
9%
SurpriseCurrent implied probability
Yes 100%+0.9pt
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$830.2K
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownBid / Ask
99.9% / 100.0%
Spread
0.1 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 63 days ago
StaleJun 16, 26, 3:56 PMJul 31, 26, 3:59 PM
Probability Timeline
Yes100%
No0%
100%
0%
Rules
On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19.
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump physically signs the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026 by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- “Physically signs” means that Donald Trump personally signs the agreement by hand, including by signing a physical copy of the agreement or another signature page that forms part of the agreement.
- Electronic or digital signatures will not qualify.
- The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement.
