Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by November 30?
US PoliticsOne-OffMiddle East29d
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
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10+ 41%Leader of 5 outcomes
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57 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$500.6
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$22.2K
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Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Oct 31, 26, 12:24 AM UTCDec 1, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of November 2?
PolymarketHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 26?
PolymarketHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of November 2?
PolymarketHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 26?
PolymarketOn November 29th 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be?
Manifold MarketsWill 100 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and November 30, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
- This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized.
