Will Pakistan strike Iran by Saturday?
Geopolitics
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes
Resolved: Jan 18, 2024, 6:45 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current implied probability
Yes 100%
Market quality
15 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 123 days ago
StaleJan 17, 24, 9:05 PMJan 20, 24, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
Yes100%
No0%
100%
0%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan initiates a military attack on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory between January 16, 12:00 PM ET, and January 20, 2024, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A "military attack" is any use of force executed by Pakistan on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if an Islamic Revolutionary Guard weapons depot on Iranian soil is subject to a Pakistani missile strike, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Pakistani federal government or a consensus of credible reporting.
- This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions.
- Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count.
- Pakistan striking an unmanned aerial vehicle or projectile over Iranian territory in a defensive capacity will NOT count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Pakistan strike Iran by Saturday??
- Polymarket prices Yes at 100% as of April 25, 2026.
- When does Will Pakistan strike Iran by Saturday? resolve?
- Will Pakistan strike Iran by Saturday? is scheduled to resolve on January 20, 2024.
- How is Will Pakistan strike Iran by Saturday? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan initiates a military attack on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory between January 16, 12:00 PM ET, and January 20, 2024, 11:59 PM ET.