Current implied probability
No 97%
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$9K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
1.7% / 5.1%
Spread
3.4 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
7d Change
-2.7 pts
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Aug 21, 26, 6:13 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
- To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP).
- Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
- A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice.
- Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Macron call a referendum by December 31??
- Polymarket prices No at 97% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will Macron call a referendum by December 31? resolve?
- Will Macron call a referendum by December 31? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will Macron call a referendum by December 31? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.