Will Israel invade Lebanon by January 20?
Geopolitics
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No
Resolved: Jan 21, 2024, 7:16 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current implied probability
No 100%
Market quality
15 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 122 days ago
StaleJan 9, 24, 8:35 PMJan 20, 24, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
Yes0%
No100%
100%
0%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon by January 20, 2024, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by Lebanon, Israel, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Israel invade Lebanon by January 20??
- Polymarket prices No at 100% as of April 25, 2026.
- When does Will Israel invade Lebanon by January 20? resolve?
- Will Israel invade Lebanon by January 20? is scheduled to resolve on January 20, 2024.
- How is Will Israel invade Lebanon by January 20? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon by January 20, 2024, 11:59 PM ET.