Will Israel attack Iran by February 15?
Geopolitics
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: No
Resolved: Feb 16, 2024, 7:01 AM
Provider-verified resolution
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Probability Timeline
Yes0%
No100%
NoWon
YesLost
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a military attack on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory between January 25 and February 15, 2024, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For the purposes of this market, a "military attack" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Israel on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is subject to a Israeli missile strike, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
- This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions.
- Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
- In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.