What are the current odds for Will any major Iranian oil refinery be taken out by Nov 30??

Polymarket prices No at 100% as of April 25, 2026.

Will any major Iranian oil refinery be taken out by Nov 30?

Geopolitics Commodities

PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

This market resolved: No

Resolved: Dec 1, 2023, 7:06 AM

Provider-verified resolution

CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.

Current implied probability

No 100%

Market quality

15 / 100

Low quality

24h Volume

—

Liquidity

—

Liquidity unknown

Market data

Updated 123 days ago

Stale

Oct 12, 23, 7:39 PMNov 30, 23, 12:00 AM

Probability Timeline

Yes0%

No100%

0.0 pts

100%

Yes

0.0 pts

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any listed major Iranian oil refinery is damaged to the point of inoperability for any length of time due to violent or military action by November 30, 2023 ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The major Iranian oil refineries considered for this market are:
Abadan Refinery Isfahan Refinery Arak Refinery Bandar Abbas Refinery Tehran Refinery
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and/or Iran, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Report a data issue with this market

Will any major Iranian oil refinery be taken out by Nov 30?

Geopolitics Commodities

PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

This market resolved: No

Resolved: Dec 1, 2023, 7:06 AM

Provider-verified resolution

CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.

Current implied probability

No 100%

Market quality

15 / 100

Low quality

24h Volume

—

Liquidity

—

Liquidity unknown

Market data

Updated 123 days ago

Stale

Oct 12, 23, 7:39 PMNov 30, 23, 12:00 AM

Probability Timeline

Yes0%

No100%

0.0 pts

100%

Yes

0.0 pts

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any listed major Iranian oil refinery is damaged to the point of inoperability for any length of time due to violent or military action by November 30, 2023 ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The major Iranian oil refineries considered for this market are:
Abadan Refinery Isfahan Refinery Arak Refinery Bandar Abbas Refinery Tehran Refinery
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and/or Iran, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Report a data issue with this market

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will any major Iranian oil refinery be taken out by Nov 30??: Polymarket prices No at 100% as of April 25, 2026.
When does Will any major Iranian oil refinery be taken out by Nov 30? resolve?: Will any major Iranian oil refinery be taken out by Nov 30? is scheduled to resolve on November 30, 2023.
How is Will any major Iranian oil refinery be taken out by Nov 30? settled?: Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any listed major Iranian oil refinery is damaged to the point of inoperability for any length of time due to violent or military action by November 30, 2023 ET.

Will any major Iranian oil refinery be taken out by Nov 30?

Will any major Iranian oil refinery be taken out by Nov 30?

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