PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Jay Clayton
Resolved: Oct 5, 2026, 4:28 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Probability Timeline
Sriram Krishnan1%
Scott Kupor2%
Sean Cairncross1%
Jay Clayton100%
Chamath Palihapitiya1%
Emil Michael0%
No Czar by December 318%
Jay ClaytonWon
Before close: 100% ·
Sriram KrishnanLost
Before close: 0% ·
Michael KratsiosLost
Before close: 0% ·
Scott KuporLost
Before close: 0% ·
Sean CairncrossLost
Before close: 0% ·
Chamath PalihapitiyaLost
Before close: 0% ·
Emil MichaelLost
Before close: 0% ·
No Czar by December 31Lost
Before close: 0% ·
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the first individual Donald Trump announces as his pick to be AI czar.
- An announcement from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to appoint a specific individual as AI czar will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal appointment actually occurs.
- Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the AI czar or future AI czar.
- Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify.
- Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
- An announcement will qualify regardless of the name used to refer to AI, including "super intelligence" (SI).