PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSettled by the venue, market by market
Resolved: Oct 21, 2026, 3:59 PM
This event has no single winner. The venue settled each market separately; each market shows its own result.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 22, 2026, 7:01 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Wales39%
Defence80%
Mr Speaker 20+94%
King / Queen0%
Mr Speaker 12+95%
Northern Ireland68%
Immigration17%
NHS0%
Reform42%
Trump31%
Budget95%
No Qualifying Event10%
Mr Speaker 30+50%
Scotland77%
Million / Billion / Trillion 5+0%
BudgetWon
Before close: 100% ·
DefenceWon
Before close: 99% ·
Mr Speaker 12+Won
Before close: 100% ·
Mr Speaker 20+Won
Before close: 96% ·
Mr Speaker 30+Won
Before close: 99% ·
Northern IrelandWon
Before close: 96% ·
ReformWon
Before close: 96% ·
TrumpWon
Before close: 100% ·
WalesWon
Before close: 100% ·
No Qualifying EventLost
Before close: 26% ·
ImmigrationLost
Before close: 36% ·
King / QueenLost
Before close: 35% ·
Million / Billion / Trillion 5+Lost
Before close: 40% ·
NHSLost
Before close: 1% ·
ScotlandLost
Before close: 5% ·
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
On what dates will Andy Burnham still be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?
Manifold MarketsAndy Burnham out as UK PM by which date?
PolymarketWho will be Andy Burnham's Chancellor at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho will Andy Burnham meet in person in 2026?
Manifold MarketsAndy Burnham to announce wealth tax before December 2026
Manifold MarketsAndy Burnham out as UK's Prime Minister by which date?
FutuurRules
Andy Burnham is scheduled to participate in the Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) in the Commons Chamber in the Palace of Westminster on every Wednesday.
- (https://www.parliament.uk/visiting/visiting-and-tours/watch-committees-and-debates/prime-ministers-questions/).
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Andy Burnham says the listed term during the next Prime Minister's Question Time event he participates in.
- Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
- If no such Prime Minister's Question Time event happens or Andy Burnham does not participate in a Prime Minister's Question Time event by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-the named outcome-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No".
- If Andy Burnham ceases to be Prime Minister for any length of time by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-the named outcome-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No".
