PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSettled by the venue, market by market
Resolved: Oct 14, 2026, 2:43 PM
This event has no single winner. The venue settled each market separately; each market shows its own result.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 15, 2026, 11:42 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Budget90%
Trump100%
Immigration0%
Wales47%
Million / Billion / Trillion 5+0%
Mr Speaker 20+100%
Mr Speaker 30+100%
Scotland100%
King / Queen0%
Northern Ireland35%
Reform2%
BudgetWon
DefenceWon
Mr Speaker 12+Won
Mr Speaker 20+Won
Mr Speaker 30+Won
ScotlandWon
TrumpWon
No Qualifying EventLost
ImmigrationLost
King / QueenLost
Million / Billion / Trillion 5+Lost
NHSLost
Northern IrelandLost
ReformLost
WalesLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
On what dates will Andy Burnham still be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?
Manifold MarketsWho will be Andy Burnham's Chancellor at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho will Andy Burnham meet in person in 2026?
Manifold MarketsAndy Burnham out as UK PM by which date?
PolymarketAndy Burnham to announce wealth tax before December 2026
Manifold MarketsAndy Burnham out as UK's Prime Minister by which date?
FutuurRules
Andy Burnham is scheduled to participate in the Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) in the Commons Chamber in the Palace of Westminster on every Wednesday.
- (https://www.parliament.uk/visiting/visiting-and-tours/watch-committees-and-debates/prime-ministers-questions/).
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Andy Burnham says the listed term during the next Prime Minister's Question Time event he participates in.
- Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
- If no such Prime Minister's Question Time event happens or Andy Burnham does not participate in a Prime Minister's Question Time event by October 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-the named outcome-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No".
- If Andy Burnham ceases to be Prime Minister for any length of time by October 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-the named outcome-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No".
