PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 99%+1.2pt
Market quality
70 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$325.9
Liquidity
$8.9K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
1.0% / 1.4%
Spread
0.4 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
-5.5 pts
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Jul 24, 26, 4:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Trump tries to fire Lisa Cook by which date?
PolymarketTrump tries to serve a third term?
Manifold MarketsWhat will Kevin Warsh say during his October press conference?
KalshiTrump publicly insults Warsh by which date?
PolymarketKevin Warsh out as Fed chair?
KalshiWarsh out as Fed Chair by which date?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
- If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
- Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
- The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Open markets
FedPOLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.2pt99%
- 1 (25 bps)-1.1pt1%
- 2 (50 bps)+0.1pt0%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $53.1M
- 24h Vol
- $84.1K
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- 25 bps increase54.5%
- No change43.6%
- 25 bps decrease1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $7.8M
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in October 2026
- Fed maintains rate46.8%
- Hike 25bps-4.0pt45.8%
- Hike >25bps-2.0pt3.2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $46.8K
KALSHIFed decision in Oct 2026?
- Hike 25bps+1.0pt52.9%
- Fed maintains rate43.3%
- Hike >25bps1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETAnother Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes+3.0pt86.1%
- No-3.0pt13.9%
- Total Vol
- $70.3K
- 24h Vol
- $24.8K
POLYMARKETFed Decision in December?
- 25 bps increase67.3%
- No change30.7%
- 25 bps decrease-0.5pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Number of rate cuts in 2026?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed Rate Decision (Jan 2027)
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Fed rate cut by which date?
- Fed decision in Dec 2026?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026??
- Polymarket prices No at 99% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026? resolve?
- Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.