Current implied probability
PQ 71%Leader of 33 outcomes
Market quality
81 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$1.6K
Liquidity
$167.9K
High liquidityBid / Ask
0.1% / 0.2%
Spread
0.1 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Dec 2, 25, 5:15 PMOct 5, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
PQ71%
Compare venues· PQ
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketThis pageBest overall | High | 71% | — | $1.6K | $167.9K | 14 minutes ago | |
 Manifold Markets92% match · verified | — | 54% | — | — | — | 45 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
Quebec election winner in 2026?
2mo
54.1%
22.6%
19.2%
+2 more outcomes
Community forecast18 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
- This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
- If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
- In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election.
- If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
- This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$1.6kJul 226d of dataJul 27
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Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
- This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
- If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
- In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election.
- If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
- This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.