KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 28 or more (85%)
Resolved: Oct 19, 2026, 9:20 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 19, 2026, 8:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
28 or more85%
29 or more71%
30 or more70%
31 or more0%
32 or more53%
33 or more0%
34 or more98%
35 or more98%
36 or more98%
37 or more98%
34 or moreLost
35 or moreLost
36 or moreLost
37 or moreLost
28 or moreWon
29 or moreLost
30 or moreLost
32 or moreLost
31 or moreLost
33 or moreLost
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KalshiRules
If the Quebec Liberal Party has won at least 28 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Elections Quebec
- A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either (a) the time for filing legal challenges has expired without challenge, (b) any legal challenges have been finally resolved, or (c) the elected member has taken their seat in the parliament/legislature. Party affiliation is determined by the party under whose banner the candidate was elected, regardless of any subsequent changes in affiliation. The count will be determined when the new legislature takes their seat, even if vacant seats remain or some results are continuing to be challenged. If the election is postponed, the market will remain open and resolve based on the rescheduled election, unless the postponement extends beyond one year from the originally scheduled date, in which case the market will resolve to the last fair market price. If the election is cancelled entirely (that is, it is not Fully Conducted as defined in the Contract), the market will resolve to the last fair market price. If only partial elections are held, only seats actually contested and filled will be counted. By-elections occurring after the main election will be included in the count only if they are sat at the same time as the rest of the legislature.
Rules for each outcome
- 34 or more
- If the Quebec Liberal Party has won at least 34 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 35 or more
- If the Quebec Liberal Party has won at least 35 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 36 or more
- If the Quebec Liberal Party has won at least 36 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 37 or more
- If the Quebec Liberal Party has won at least 37 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 28 or more
- If the Quebec Liberal Party has won at least 28 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 29 or more
- If the Quebec Liberal Party has won at least 29 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 30 or more
- If the Quebec Liberal Party has won at least 30 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 32 or more
- If the Quebec Liberal Party has won at least 32 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 31 or more
- If the Quebec Liberal Party has won at least 31 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 33 or more
- If the Quebec Liberal Party has won at least 33 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
