Current implied probability
Under 79%+7.0pt
Market quality
36 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$145.9
Liquidity
$235.2
Low liquidityBid / Ask
13.0% / 29.0%
Spread
16.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
7d Change
-21.0 pts
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Aug 20, 26, 6:33 PM UTCSep 20, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
- This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
- This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
- This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
- Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party.
- Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.