KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityAfD 80.4%Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$12.2K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
12.0% / 16.0%
Spread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Jun 1, 26, 9:00 PMSep 20, 27, 2:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
SPD16%
Compare venues· AfD
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall88% match · verified | High | 83% | 0pt | $5.7K | $130.6K | 13 minutes ago | Open → |
| KalshiThis page | Low | 86% | +3pt | $0 | $12.2K | 13 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
1.0 pts1mo
-1.0pt83%
+0.5pt17%
0%
+21 more outcomes
81 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$425.3K
24h Vol$5.7K
POLYMARKETRules
If SPD wins the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber.
- If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No.
- This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner.
- See full rules for details.
- If AfD wins the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$300Jul 411d of dataJul 21
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If SPD wins the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber.
- If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No.
- This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner.
- See full rules for details.
- If AfD wins the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election, then the market resolves to Yes.