Current implied probability
Under 83%+9.5pt
Market quality
63 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$713
Liquidity
$7.9K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
15.0% / 19.0%
Spread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
7d Change
-23.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Aug 20, 26, 6:33 PM UTCSep 20, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
- This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
- This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
- This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
- Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party.
- Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.