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Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 1:52 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
June 30 · —
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Stored reference
June 30 72%
June 30 72%Market quality
16 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$1.4
Liquidity
$370.1
Low liquidityOpen interest
$1.4
Bid / Ask
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June 30Spread
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Comments
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Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingOct 23, 26, 9:52 PM UTCJul 1, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Top holders
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Market depth · June 30
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Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Marathon Fusion gold yield of 0.1+ per fusion neutron confirmed by which date?
PolymarketMarathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by which date?
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Manifold MarketsRules
On October 21, 2026, Marathon Fusion announced that it had "demonstrated high-rate alchemy," turning mercury into stable gold using fusion neutrons and "beating CERN's record by a factor of 10." (see: https://startupfortune.com/marathon-fusion-says-it-turned-mercury-into-gold-no-proof-yet/) Marathon Fusion's paper titled "Scalable Chrysopoeia via (n, 2n) Reactions Driven by Deuterium-Tritium Fusion Neutrons" (https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.13461) projects gold production of approximately 2 tonnes per gigawatt of thermal fusion power per year, based on neutron transport simulations.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the measured gold yield of a Marathon Fusion mercury-to-gold experiment is confirmed to be within 20% of the yield predicted for that experiment by Marathon Fusion's neutronics simulation, through at least one of the qualifying confirmation methods listed below, by the named outcome, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying experiment is one in which stable gold-197 is produced from mercury using neutrons generated by deuterium-tritium fusion reactions (including deuterium-tritium neutron generators).
- The predicted yield is the number of gold-197 atoms that Marathon Fusion's neutron transport simulation (e.g., OpenMC) calculates for that specific experimental configuration, including its neutron source output, irradiation duration, target geometry, and mercury isotopic composition.
- The predicted yield must be publicly disclosed by Marathon Fusion or included in the publication or confirmation under consideration.
