Marathon Fusion gold yield of 0.1+ per fusion neutron confirmed by which date?
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Data quality warningNo live quotesStale data
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 4:34 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current implied probability
June 30 39%-2.0pt
June 30 39%-2.0ptMarket quality
10 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$259
Low liquidityOpen interest
$1.1
Bid / Ask
5.0% / 49.0%
Spread
44.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 4 days ago
StaleOct 23, 26, 9:50 PM UTCJul 1, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
June 3039%
December 3127%
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Rules
On October 21, 2026, Marathon Fusion announced that it had "demonstrated high-rate alchemy," turning mercury into stable gold using fusion neutrons and "beating CERN's record by a factor of 10." (see: https://startupfortune.com/marathon-fusion-says-it-turned-mercury-into-gold-no-proof-yet/) Marathon Fusion's paper titled "Scalable Chrysopoeia via (n, 2n) Reactions Driven by Deuterium-Tritium Fusion Neutrons" (https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.13461) projects gold production of approximately 2 tonnes per gigawatt of thermal fusion power per year, based on neutron transport simulations.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if a gold conversion efficiency of at least 0.1 gold atoms per fusion neutron is confirmed through at least one of the qualifying confirmation methods listed below by the named outcome, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying experiment is one in which stable gold-197 is produced from mercury using neutrons generated by deuterium-tritium fusion reactions (including deuterium-tritium neutron generators), and in which the number of gold-197 atoms produced divided by the total number of fusion neutrons emitted by the neutron source during the irradiation is at least 0.1.
- The number of gold-197 atoms produced includes gold-197 resulting from the decay of mercury-197 created during the irradiation.
- The number of fusion neutrons emitted will be the measured total neutron output of the source over the irradiation, not only the neutrons that reach the mercury target.
