PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: <5
Resolved: Oct 27, 2026, 6:00 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
<5
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
97%
ConsensusData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 28, 2026, 10:28 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
<5100%
5-90%
25-290%
10-140%
<5Won
10-14Lost
15-19Lost
20-24Lost
25-29Lost
30-34Lost
35-39Lost
40-44Lost
45-49Lost
5-9Lost
50-54Lost
55-59Lost
60+Lost
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between October 20, 12:00 PM ET and October 27, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
- For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
- Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
- Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
- The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com.
- Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data".
