PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Current implied probability
June 15 100%Leader of 15 outcomes
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$385.1K
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownSpread
0.1 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+94.7 pts
Market data
Updated 81 days ago
StaleMay 1, 26, 6:22 PMMay 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region.
- A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region.
- Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify.
- Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).