Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?
0.5 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsGeopoliticsMiddle EastChina3mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 92%+0.5pt
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$9.9K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
6.0% / 10.0%
Spread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Sep 2, 26, 4:39 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers before Xi Jinping visits the United States.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- If neither a qualifying announcement nor a Xi Jinping visit to the United States occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
- An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees).
- An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US??
- Polymarket prices No at 92% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US? resolve?
- Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.