PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityDemocratic Party 94%Leader of 8 outcomes
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$19K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
5.0% / 6.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spread7d Change
-1.0 pts
Market data
Updated 22 minutes ago
Jan 28, 26, 9:37 PMNov 3, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Democratic Party94%
Compare venues· Democratic Party
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Low | 94% | — | $0 | $19K | 22 minutes ago | |
 Kalshi60% match · verified | Low | 95% | — | $0 | $729 | 22 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Kalshi
IL-09 House winner?
1y
95%
5%
49 • Low qualityModerate spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$2.8K
24h Vol$0
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S.
- House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
- The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
- A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
- A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
- This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$5Jul 611d of dataJul 27
Related Markets
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
$946.9KRobert F. Kennedy Jr.: 49%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Florida Republican Governor nominee?
$688.5KJames Fishback: 3%KALSHI
KALSHI
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
$407.9KGavin Newsom: 19%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Florida Republican Governor primary: James Fishback vote percent
$274.4KAt least 1%: 95%KALSHI
KALSHI
Which party will win the U.S. House?
$91.3KRepublican Party: 17%KALSHI
KALSHI
Trump out as President by July 31?
$62.2KYes: 0%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETActive in these topics
Related News
Polymarket odds swing: Eizenkot hits 51% as Israel campaign kicks offBlockchain.News
Polymarket: Vance leads 2028 at 19.85% as pricing trend softensBlockchain.News
White House pushes Senate Democrats to take 'historic' crypto Clarity Act ethics dealCoindesk
Senate nears bipartisan CLARITY Act deal after ethics breakthroughCrypto News
White House agrees to ethics provisions in market structure billCointelegraph
Polymarket odds show Vance at 19.85% as Epstein files critique hits tapeBlockchain.NewsRules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S.
- House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
- The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
- A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
- A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
- This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.