PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Republican Party 93%Leader of 8 outcomes
Market quality
68 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$14.4
Liquidity
$35.5K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Jan 28, 26, 9:36 PMNov 3, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
- The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
- A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
- A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
- This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
- If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — IA-04 House winner? · Chris McGowan 90%
Open markets
Politics
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+2.0pt18.9%
- Jon Ossoff-1.0pt17%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.2%
+44 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $190.4M
- 24h Vol
- $1.1M
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance+1.1pt23%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+1.1pt14%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt11%
+125 more outcomes
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+1.2pt23%
- Gavin Newsom-0.1pt15%
- Jon Ossoff-0.1pt15%
+125 more outcomes
KALSHISouth Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?
- Darline Graham+3.0pt62.7%
- Ralph Norman-3.0pt29.1%
- Pamela Evette0.9%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $14.8M
KALSHIWhat will Trump say this week?
- Golf / Golfer / Golfing99%
- Sleepy Joe99%
- Kamala99%
+28 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.2M
- 24h Vol
- $606.1K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+3.0pt72%
- October 31+4.0pt48%
- September 30+5.0pt32%
+17 more outcomes
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- Trump out as President before 2027?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Next French Presidential Election
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- South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff margin of victory?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for IA-04 House Election Winner?
- Polymarket prices Republican Party at 93% as of August 24, 2026.
- When does IA-04 House Election Winner resolve?
- IA-04 House Election Winner is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2026.
- How is IA-04 House Election Winner settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
- Where else is IA-04 House Election Winner listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi.