PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
September 30 93%+14.5ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
56 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$16.7K
Liquidity
$18.3K
Medium liquiditySpread
7.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 18 minutes ago
Aug 18, 26, 10:43 PMSep 30, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date AST (UTC+03:00).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
- Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
- Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
- Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.