PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probabilityMaine 27%+4.0%Leader of 16 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$6.2K
Liquidity
$78K
High liquidityBid / Ask
7.0% / 8.0%
Spread
14.3%
Wide spread7d Change
-31.5%
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Jun 26, 26, 8:04 PMNov 3, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Maine27%
CoinRithm referenceTexas17%· 2 venues· ±7 pts
OhioMaineIowa
KALSHI
Also available on Kalshi
Closest Senate race in 2026?
5mo
12%
10%
+1.0%13%
+12 more outcomes
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$160.6K
24h Vol$2.3K
KALSHIRules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
- For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates.
- Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
- For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
- If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$6.2kJul 63d of dataJul 8
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The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
- For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates.
- Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
- For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
- If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.